[ARTEINVIVO] Spins needed to make an educated guess.
Hello guys. From time to time I check the GG forum. I found this set of questions by Arteinvivo and of course they "did that thing they do" on it. Arte is an appreciatted friend of mine, I repost his questions here: How many spins do we need to make an educated guess ? By the same token, what is an educated guess regarding Roulette ? Can we make an educated guess without using past spins ? Can we make an educated guess just using our own record of win/lost bets. How can we make an educated guess without falling into some kind of a fallacy?

How many, indeed?
Victor I sat at the table and saw 33 33 and then 4 4. Some guy said, "I've never seen that before." I thought, 'You haven't seen much.' I think "how many spins" is somewhat personal. I have seen things I am confident will happen again and again. How many spins did it take? Not sure..... Why do these things happen? Last night I lay listening to the wind move Marcia's wind chimes. There are seven notes A-G. I could hear three distinct notes and knew they were purely random. Then, later, I would hear those same three notes. Random. Yet they occurred. I have always maintained it's not how many spins, but what your graph looks like. Do you have wild swings? Does it go steadily up even though it takes an occasional downturn? If you graphed a fool doing a Martingale on red, your swings would be dramatic. If you graphed Lanky doing the VLS Methodology, your graph would steadily climb upwards. To me, that's most important. Sam

Can we make an educated guess without using past spins?
I'll take this one. I have to say: NO. The only guess without using past spins is the "Wild Ass Guess" at the "It's my money, and I can use it however I want" mental framework. Thinking a bit, even the ones using the visual ballistics need to know and have worked with past spins in order to make their predictions for the current spin. It is frequent to hear the word "qualify" when talking about tables/dealers...

Thanks for your kind invitation VLS to discuss this idea here. As usual a true gentleman. The question was great but the replies on GG were low. I wonder why ?

VLS and all others i have begun to post an idea on VIP to see if the continuity of a trend can help us win more than lose. Can we use a point of reference in time in order to avoid large dispersion of hits ? This is something i am trying to explore. See this new topic : http://gambling.projectsydney.com/viewtopic.php?t=5429

Arte! Welcome around my friend!! I'm so happy you are around. Let's keep it @ the productive side mate. Quarrels and meaningless argunents "a la GG" are just a waste of server's bandwidth. IMHO. How can we make an educated guess without falling into some kind of a fallacy? We can't. The accepted "reality" is the spin is 100% independent, so "guessing" -no matter how "educated" it may be- simply falls in the ground of the accepted as fallacy, which is: the spins have no relation with each other, and you can't use past spins as a guide for current one (i.e. guessing). In the accepted framework of roulette being only a 1-spin game, everything which uses even as little as the previous spin to try to guess the next one falls into the fallacy. =================== You know Art? I wonder if binomial distribution or Bernoulli fall into the fallacy category too, since they involve 2 or more spins. Or is the math mob selective in what they label a fallacy and what is the reality at convenience? For instance, there are plenty of accepted things which they expect based on sucessive spins such as expecting random to behave and create a somewhat even distribution under large samples (yep, actually expecting something from a random device... accepted reality). This open the question. Is "roulette random" random? Or is it only the next spin what they want random but the "roulette random" must comply with everything else as expected, but only accepted as real for the roulette wheel. You try to use calculations (i.e. binomial) for succesive spins to lay your bets and you will get laughed at. I.e. No matter the calculation, it is still 1/37 for the next spin. That's the accepted reality, the rest is the fallacy.

Hi VLS i would like to answer this questions whit my humble opinions and will refer to the methodology regarding my post - balance and imbalance.... How many spins do we need to make an educated guess ? 100 spins. By the same token, what is an educated guess regarding Roulette ? Math, probability and statistics. Can we make an educated guess without using past spins ? No for long term winners that's overcome the zero tax. Can we make an educated guess just using our own record of win/lost bets. Don't understand this question. How can we make an educated guess without falling into some kind of a fallacy? There is no fallacy regarding the mathematical truth that everything will recoup for balance. But there is rules of how to take advantage of that law. It isn't so simple just to play sleepers, if you don't understand the math, probability and statistics they are based upon. There is a difference if an imbalance occurs within 100 spins or if it occurs within 50. Here is the strength of the SD or the statistical ecart that will revel the truth.

Thanks for the answer lucky. I'll take this one: Can we make an educated guess just using our own record of win/lost bets. The guessing at the win/loss record comes from pure observation. In this case the "education" comes from watching and watching how the the Lw string develops. Times for the good times (w's dominating) times for the L's... The player then can make an educated guess for it to continue or to change, based on his previous observations. "Can we make an educated guess just using our own record of win/lost bets?" I will say YES. But guessing is only guessing, not predicting to beat the house edge ;) By the means of money management and hitting at or as close to the house edge as possible we try to come ahead session after session; the goal is not beating the game by purely bet selection and flat bets (i.e. trying to keep the hits as close to the expected as possible using as many patterns, common events, trends, etc. etc. we have to use for the guessing).

Hi, For me it's more like the Rictor Scale for earthquakes. I'm looking for big jolts and little trimmers. I can take advantage of large wild swings by betting the direction and letting it ride. I can play w's & L's that work best when there are little trimmers also. I know this sounds simplistic but I have found that it is a lot work to maintain a complex betting scheme when the same kind of results also exist in the simplest of table layout bets. So I use my focus on the swings that come and go. Mark