What do we expect from "RANDOM". Being this a "random" game, we expect many thing from it; both at the short-term and at the long run.
By definition, if it is random, then we can't expect anything, but we do, so let's compile a list of the things we expect from randomness in our game.
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Is this game truly random, is this a chaotic scenario but not a 100% random one...
Starting, anyone? (The most obvious traits are OK to post, fallacy-based included).
gizmotron- 10-20-2007
Re: What do we expect from "RANDOM". Being this a "random" game, we expect many thing from it; both at the short-term and at the long run.
Many times on roulette forums someone will say that they are waiting to see when the spins that are coming up are "not random." If you look at the wild swings that appear less frequently than the common statistical changes in the appearance of randomness, that happen often, you will see that this "not random" looking state is nothing more than the percentages coming true in normal binomial distribution. We all know about ten reds in a row. That is a wild swing of randomness that only seems to be not random. The only thing is, it's "just random." So the proper thing to say and think is I'm waiting to see spins combinations that are rare but normally happen from time to time.
Continuously betting on a system includes the times when losses will act as the correcting function that brings the house's edge(%) to fruition or into play. By skipping the correction function you can tweak any system to rise slightly above that edge. One of the natures of randomness regarding statistics is that it is only normal random events if the events are part a continuous stream or grouping of selections. If you skip the wild swing downturns the a small percentage of normal correction function is minimized. Example: (VLS - hunting Lw's) ... gizmoDogma :?
VLSroulette- 10-20-2007
What do we expect from "RANDOM".
This is what the math experts and the casino expects: In the long term it is expected for the short-term deviations to "balance" and the larger the sample it is expected for the real-life numbers to be more close to their ideal values of appearance.
For example:
For a dozen, it is expected to come 1 out of every 3 spins.
In the real-world of a session, a dozen can have huge deviations from this norm. The job from the situational player starts by knowing the expected values and using the "trend" or the "direction" of the data stream (bet what is trending).
Wich remind me a bit of the dumbo paradox:
So if you want to win, if you want to be a professional, there is one simple task and any "system" design has to take it into account.
Identify "what is wrong with this picture" as soon as possible and then apply a betting strategy to capitalize on the current session's deviation from mathematical norm.
Meaning 1-rule-fits-all systems are bound to fail. Only situational strategies which adapt spin to spin to current situation have a shot at it.
Victor -No dogmas mate- ;)
VLSroulette- 10-20-2007
OK another one:
While "true random" can't be limited in any form or shape, we expect not to withness extreme deviations from the norm in our lifetime.
Example: In theory 1000 reds in a row is as possible as any combination of colors resulting after 1000 spins, but do we expect to see 1000 reds in a row during our lifetime? NO. Why not? Maybe because of the physical aspect of the game.
Likewise, the same numbers coming 100 times in a row is totally possible, but there is not a recorded run of the same number coming one hundred times in a row.
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Then, as turbo says: RANDOM HAS LIMITS, but more accurate, our LIFETIME has limits and so it limits what length of "random" we will actually experience/withness.
Corolary: We don't need to have a system to beat random in an truly infinite scenario, we only need a winning system to beat what we will see in our lifetime.
So, one could say:
"Don't give me a system to beat random for the infinite because there is none, give me a winning system I can use in my lifetime which there IS".
...some people can win betting "RED" won't come to 30 times in a row, because that is their real-play "lifetime max", mind you.
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Regards,
Victor.
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